Iowa Caucuses 2024 live updates: Why does the race matter for Trump, Haley and other GOP hopefuls?

 The Iowa Caucus is almost here.

The crucial early primary contest has long had the power to reshape a presidential race, tripping up frontrunners and giving a boost to fierce political rivals. This year, former President Donald Trump's Republican challengers are trying to make inroads with Hawkeye State voters, even as Iowa faces extreme conditions with temperatures sweeping below 0 degrees.

But how did Iowa's contest becoming a crucial hurdle for White House hopefuls? How are organizers on both sides of the aisle preparing for the caucuses?

Keep up with the USA TODAY Network's live coverage of the upcoming Iowa Caucus as voters in the Hawkeye State make their 2024 picks.

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Donald Trump to caucusgoers: 'Dress warmly'

Donald Trump has taken the stage in a small but crowded ballroom at Simpson College in Indianola, Iowa − and issued a caucus warning about the weather.

"Dress warmly tomorrow night," he told supporters.

This is Trump's only scheduled public speech on Sunday, though he has a "tele-rally" set for later in the day. Temperatures in the Iowa city dropped to -10 degrees Sunday afternoon.

Donald Trump greets volunteers at Des Moines hotel before heading to rally

The former president met with campaign volunteers on Sunday morning, before his motorcade departed for a rally in Indianola south of the capital city.

Trump, donning a white-and-gold "caucus captain" hat in addition to his usual blue suit and red tie, remarked that some observers have predicted he might eclipse 50% of support on caucus night. He pointed to the record Republican margin of victory in the Iowa caucuses – a 12-point win by Bob Dole in 1996.

Trump has frequently set sky-high expectations on the caucus trail, telling supporters to show up for a "historic" and "landslide" victory on Monday. The new Iowa Poll released Saturday night showed him leading the field by 28 percentage points.

He also tempered his concerns about turnout in the weather, with snow mostly passed but wind chills expecting to result in record-low temperatures for a caucus night: "We seem to have a lot of good enthusiasm," Trump said. "I don't know, maybe the weather is not going to be that big a deal."

After slipping to third place in Iowa Poll, Ron DeSantis says Iowans ‘roll their eyes at these polls’

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told WHO 13 News on Sunday that he’s skeptical about the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, where 16% of likely Republican caucusgoers selected him as their first-choice candidate.

“I think a lot of the Iowans, they just roll their eyes at these polls. I mean, the idea that you’re gonna know in a caucus with negative-20-degree temperatures what that electorate’s gonna look like, you just can’t do it,” DeSantis said. “So it’s basically shooting into the wind.”

DeSantis and his endorsers have waved away poll results for months, telling crowds in Iowa that polls are part of a “media narrative” that Trump is unbeatable. In a Sunday email, the DeSantis campaign assured its donors and supporters that the Register’s Iowa Poll has “an incredibly bad track record of predicting the results of the Iowa Caucus.” The email notes that Donald Trump was ahead in the final Iowa poll before the 2016 caucus, but Ted Cruz was the victor on caucus night.

Cruz and Trump were within just five percentage points of each other in the final poll before the 2016 caucus. As gold-standard pollster J. Ann Selzer said then: “The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race.”

In this year’s pre-caucus poll, Trump is the first-choice candidate for 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers. That puts him 28 percentage points ahead of Nikki Haley and 32 percentage points ahead of DeSantis.

In the history of the Iowa Poll, no candidate with a double-digit lead over second place has gone on to lose the caucuses.

“I’ve been down big right before an election and won before. So we’re doing it right,” DeSantis said on WHO. “Our voters are going to turn out. They are gonna be there and they’re excited to be there.”

— Katie Akin, Tim Webber

Nikki Haley pulls ahead of DeSantis for second place in Iowa poll, Donald Trump leads

Donald Trump retains a commanding lead in the final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll before Monday’s caucuses, with Nikki Haley sliding past Ron DeSantis into second place. 

The former president is the first choice of 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers, while former United Nations Ambassador Haley is at 20% and Florida Gov. DeSantis drops to 16%. No other candidate reaches double digits. 

The poll of 705 likely Republican caucus goers was conducted Jan. 7-12 by Selzer & Co. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

– Stephen Gruber-Miller

‘Looking for momentum’: Nikki Haley supporter says Iowa is just the beginning

Sanford Owens, 67, travelled to Iowa from Portland, Oregon, to support Haley during the caucus. Yet, he said he doesn’t expect her to come out on top.

“I think she’s going to have a good showing, but no I don’t think she’s going to win. I think Trump will win,” Owens said.

Thinking Iowans will already be “pre-set” on a candidate, Owens said he believes Monday's outcome will simply get “the ball rolling” for Haley heading into the New Hampshire primary next week.  

“We’re looking for momentum,” Owens said. “If Nikki gets momentum into New Hampshire, I think we’re going to do extremely well.” 

A registered Republican and foreign policy officer for 25 years, Owens said he started supporting the former UN ambassador about a month or two ago, largely due to her stances on overseas issues, including aid to Ukraine.

– Savannah Kuchar

A very low high in Iowa as the candidates campaign

The overnight temperature at Des Moines International Airport on Saturday into Sunday, minus 17 degrees, didn't set a record. But the forecast daytime high Sunday could match the coldest high for Jan. 14: 9 degrees below zero.

The last time Iowa shivered through a high that low on Jan. 14 was in 1888, 136 years ago, Allan Curtis, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Johnston, said Sunday morning. With gusty winds, the wind chill could hover around minus 40.

Regardless, campaign events are set today for all the Republican presidential candidates.

– Bill Steiden

Nikki Haley wins endorsement from former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan

Nikki Haley of South Carolina picked up an endorsement Sunday from a fellow former Republican governor: Larry Hogan of Maryland.

"It's time for the party to get behind Nikki Haley," Hogan said on CNN's "State of the Union," claiming she has "momentum" in her uphill primary battle against frontrunner Donald Trump, with whom Hogan has repeatedly clashed.

Hogan who considered a 2024 presidential run of his own, also had discouraging words for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other Trump challengers.

Hogan on X, formerly Twitter, said: "Since I decided not to run for president, I've been saying that we don't want to see a multi-car pile-up that would just enable Donald Trump."